MLB Opening Day Odds, Picks, Projections: Expert Betting Breakdown of Thursday’s 7 Opening Day Games

Welcome to the 2022 MLB season! Despite some weather postponements, we still have a seven-game slate for Thursday.

I wanted to provide a brief outline of the opening day games, provide how I’m betting them, and show examples of my process for arriving at those selections.

Like the Brewers, I show a more significant edge on the Mets’ F5 odds, as opposed to their full game odds, since I view Tylor Megill (3.84 xERA in 2021) as a better pitcher than Patrick Corbin (5.66).

Corbin has shown signs of life this spring. Still, my base projection prefers Megill by more than one-third of a run per game (4.16 projected ERA for Megill; 4.54 for Cobin), and I show a betting edge on the Mets F5 moneyline (projected -117, listed -105) as a result.

I don’t see betting value on this matchup from any perspective, though it’s worth noting that Zack Greinke looked like a shell of himself at the end of last season.

Greinke’s second-half metrics (4.32 xFIP, 4.39 xERA, 5.34 ERA) indicate positive regression may lie ahead. Still, he didn’t pass the eye test, and Houston tried to avoid using him in the playoffs.

Shane Bieber’s performance also dipped (3.76 xERA) last season after winning the Cy Young in 2020 (2.54 xERA). Still, his award-winning sample in a pandemic-shortened season looks like the outlier than his 50 starts on either side of that campaign (3.64 xERA in 20219).

Depending on which criteria I weigh, I could make Cleveland as low as -104 or as high as -117 for this matchup.

Still, I don’t see actionable value at my current number, and the F5 adjustment also seems appropriate for both the moneyline and the total.