Outright Winner

ORLANDO – There have been four first-time winners on the PGA TOUR over the past five weeks and if that seems like an uncommonly large amount, there’s a good reason: Because it is.

By comparison, starting in January 2021, it took 25 tournaments before there were that many first-timers who broke into the winner’s circle. The preceding year, it took 20 events; the year before that, 16; and the year before that, 21.

What’s the reason behind this recent run? It’s tough to chalk it up to much more than coincidence, but there are similarities between the four winners – notably, it wouldn’t have surprised anyone if we’d been told that Luke List, Tom Hoge, Scottie Scheffler and Sepp Straka would each finally triumph this year. Perhaps only Scheffler was at or near the top of the theoretical “best player without a victory” list, but it’s not like the others popped up out of nowhere.

And it might not stop this week, either.

I’ve got another player seeking his first career victory listed as my favorite outright play for this week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational, and like those others, it’s one which will hardly come as a surprise when he does finally win.

Let’s get right to the picks for the API, plus selections at the bottom for the opposite-field Puerto Rico Open, as well.

Other OADers

Potential selections for one-and-done options.

Keegan Bradley (+13000)

It should go without saying that I like Zalatoris, my favorite outright play, for OADs; same for my top-5/10/20 guys listed below. Those are the first names I’ll ponder when making my final selections this week, but I’ll offer a few others here and this list starts with Bradley.

His three top-10s at this event include a second- and third-place finish and his lone MC in 10 starts came in his first one, way back in 2011. Like Zalatoris, he’s a player I often like to target when that balky putter is neutralized and other clubs are greater determinants of scoring. That alone might help explain his strong record here over the years.

Hideki Matsuyama (+2800)

Unlike the player I’m about to name next, there are plenty of solid options at which to use Matsuyama throughout the year, but this one is certainly among them. He plays and practices at the nearby Golden Bear Club at Keene’s Point, just a few minutes down the road, so Hideki should be familiar not only with Bay Hill, but the recent conditions for this tourney.