Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Preview

Course Overview

The PGA Tour moves on to the second event of the “Florida Swing” with this week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational at the Bay Hill Club and Lodge in Orlando, FL. “Arnie’s Tournament” is a limited field, invitation-only event that is set at 120 golfers. Arriving on the property for the first time in 1965, Palmer fell in love with the course. And by 1979, this tournament was an annual Tour event. 

Dick Wilson’s original layout was altered and redesigned by Palmer himself in 2009. Palmer made the course tougher and more similar to Augusta National. In his own words, he explained, “I’ve introduced firm, fast playing conditions on slopes around greens that run away from the pins. This will take the ball further away from the intended target instead of stopping it like the previous heavy rough did.”

A stock par 72 classical parkland course that stretches out to 7,466 yards, it is slightly longer than the Tour average. It has the reputation of being as tough as a major-style course. With a scoring average the past five years of 0.88 shots over par, it is the fourth-toughest annual course on Tour. 

As is typical of most Florida courses, Bay Hill has 84 bunkers and nine holes with direct water danger. The water hazards have definitely contributed to the course having the highest percentage of penalty strokes on Tour over the past three years. With longer rough (3.5”) than years past and the hazards more prominently in play thanks to recent alterations by course Superintendent Chris Flynn, scoring will most likely continue to be on the difficult side similar to the 9-under scoring average over the past three events. 

Another defense of this course in which Florida is famous is the effects of the wind. The past two years saw consistent northerly winds between 12-25 mph causing both driving accuracy and GIR% to decrease by a huge margin. The wind also makes the course play even firmer and faster, thus increasing its difficulty.

Bay Hill features one of the toughest sets of par-3s and par-4s on Tour. Each of the four Par 3s is over 200 yards long, and in total average 0.16 strokes over par. Five of the par-4s are over 450 yards long, and some play even longer because players have to use “less than driver” and choose to layup. Seven of these par-4s have bogey-or-worse rates higher than 20%. With scoring so difficult, the four par-5s take on greater importance this week. They have a birdie-or-better average of over 38% each and are reachable in two shots. They definitely give players (especially the longer hitters) a chance to separate themselves from the field and will play a major role in determining who wins this week.

Off the tee, even though Bay Hill has the 19th-widest fairways, driving distance is 16% lower than the average Tour course. One reason for this is the firmness of the Bermuda fairways combined with the thick overseeded rye rough which stops any wayward drives right in its track. With the rough and water hazards in mind, many golfers also choose to club down to keep the ball in the fairway. Several holes also either require a forced carry over water or have it looming all the way down one side of the fairway. Players who drive the ball long and straight do have an advantage here, and past winners like Tiger Woods and Rory McIlroy prove it. Last year, Bryson DeChambeau took this to another level by cutting dog legs and crossing over the hazards with ease. At the same time, shorter and more accurate ball-strikers like Tyrrell Hatton and Francesco Molinari have also had success here.

Whether in the fairway or the rough, Bay Hill perennially ranks as one of the toughest courses in proximity to the hole. Both GIR% and Proximity are around 30% tougher than average. With many golfers playing conservatively off the tee, combined with the long par 3s and so many shots from the thick rough, the average approach shot distance is one of the highest on Tour at 184 yards. In fact, over 36% of approach shots come from over 200 yards. Strong long-iron players should be targeted along with those who have a higher ball flight for softer landings on the firm greens.

Despite the longer rough, scrambling on the greens at Bay Hill is right at Tour average. Overall, it typically takes less skill popping a ball out of the rough compared to chipping from a tight Bermuda lie. Nevertheless, with so many greens being missed, around-the-green play is not something to completely overlook this week. 

The greens at Bay Hill are TifEagle Bermuda and typically run on the faster side at around 12.5 on the stimpmeter. Putting success has been very predictive here as seven of the last eight winners finished in the top-15 for SG: Putting. Looking at the “Course Stats Compared to Tour Average” chart, short-game, including putting, are the only areas that are easier than average. With the greens being the seventh-largest on Tour at an average of 7,500 square feet, 3-putt avoidance will come into play this week as it is 4% tougher at Bay Hill compared to average.

Top 10 Most Important Stats

*In order of importance.

• SG: APP/Proximity 200+ yds
• SG: OTT
• Par 5 Scoring
• SG: Putting (Bermuda)
• BoB%
• SG: ARG/Scrambling
• Bogey/Dbl Bogey Avoidance
• Par 4 Scoring
• Course History
• Driving Distance

Key Course Stats Compared to Tour Average  

*Green = easier

Red = more difficult