HomeGolf Betting2026 Sony Open Picks, Stats, Sleepers, Course Preview (Dummy)

2026 Sony Open Picks, Stats, Sleepers, Course Preview (Dummy)

Kirti

Kirti

4 months ago

4 months ago

2026 Sony Open Picks, Stats, Sleepers, Course Preview (Dummy)

2026 Sony Open Picks, Stats, Sleepers, Course Preview

Pat Mayo takes a deep dive into tournament and player stats with the Rabbit Hole Tool from Betsperts Golf, making his early Sony Open Picks, highlighting stats that matter inside the model, and previewing the course.

2026 Sony Open Field & Tournament Notes

  • Field: 120 Players
  • Cut: Top 65 and Ties
  • Lineup Lock: Thursday, January 15
  • Defending Champ: Nick Taylor

Unfortunately, this may be the final year of the Hawaii Swing. And it’s not even really “swing” in 2026, as Kapalua was cancelled because of a water dispute after a severe drought. So it’s just Waialae this time around. Tough to solo swing.

Sony’s sponsorship deal expires after this year’s event, and with the new PGA TOUR management team wanting to shrink the 2027 schedule, the tea leaves can be read. Aloha means “hello” and “goodbye”; it may just be the “goodbye” version for the PGA in Hawaii at this point. Hopefully, that turns out to be wrong.

If it isn’t, let’s enjoy one last ride with the Sony Open. Because there’s nothing more warming for us in cold weather climates than tuning into nighttime golf from Hawaii (besides, you know, an actual heating source). The green, the sun, the waves, and random cutaways to aquatic life. Soothing.

Outside of actually watching golf, losing Kapalua took away our main predictor of who would win this event, too. Only two of the past 15 winners at the Sony Open hadn’t played Kapalua the week previous: Si Woo Kim (2023) & Grayson Murray (2024).

CATCH UP ON 2026 PGA PREVIEW CONTENT

Another change: The field has dropped from 144 players to only 120 players. Top 10 players Russell Henley, J.J. Spaun, Robert MacIntyre, and Ben Griffin are in the field, along with Collin Morikawa, Hideki Matsuyama, Chris Gotterup, and 18 other players currently qualified for all Signature Events in 2026.

This field is also littered with Korn Ferry Tour grads (Johnny Keefer set the KFT scoring average record last season) and the DP World Tour players who earned their TOUR card through coming in the Top 10 overseas: Kristoffer Reitan, Adrien Saddier, Daniel Brown, Jordan Smith, John Parry, Haotong Li, and Keita Nakajima are all in Hawaii. Marco Penge planned to play but is out this week with an illness.

Oh, and in an effort not to make Adam Scott and Zach Johnson feel too ancient, Vijay Singh has enacted a little-known eligibility rule to get his PGA TOUR Card for 2026: Players who have TOUR status but are among the top 50 all-time earners may regain full membership for a season of their choice. Vijay will be 63 next month. Of note, Vijay made his first career start at the 1992 Memorial Tournament.

2026 Sony Open Key Stats

  • Strokes Gained: Approach
  • Good Drives
  • Par 4s Gained
  • Strokes Gained: Putting
  • Eagles

Mayo’s Key Stat Rankings Powered in the Betsperts Golf Rabbit Hole

2026 Sony Open Course

  • Course: Waialae CC
  • Par: 70
  • Yardage: 7,044
  • Greens: Bermuda
  • Average Green Size: 7,100 sq. ft
  • Number of Sand Bunkers: 83
  • Number of Holes with Water in Play: 5

COURSE NOTES

Par 3’s (4): Average Distance – 192 yards

  • 4 of the 6 highest par rates on property
  • 2 of Taylor’s 5 bogeys came on Par 3‘s last year (played them even for the event)
  • Seven holes have a bogey rate north of 16%, and three of them are Par 3’s

Par 4’s (12): Average Distance – 435 yards

  • 3 of the 4 hardest holes are Par 4’s on the front 9 (Holes 1-2-6), all posting a double-or-worse rate over 2%
  • Five holes have a bogey rate north of 18%, and four of them are within the first six on the front 9
  • Taylor: One weekend bogey on a Par 4

Par 5’s (2): Average Distance – 529 yards

  • The 2 easiest holes on the course (both +53% under par rate)
  • With his Sunday eagle on #18, Taylor played the 5’s at -8 for the week
  • Hole #9 carries an eagle rate (7.7%) that is more than double the bogey rate (3.3%)

Full Course Stats Available in the Betsperts Golf Rabbit Hole

2026 ONE AND DONE CONTEST

The Race for the Mayo Cup STARTS THIS WEEK at the Sony Open. If past years are any indication, the contest will fill by Tuesday evening. So, if you don’t want to wait a year to get into the contest, I suggest picking up (to 10) entries NOW!!!!!

The prize pool is guaranteed at $1,200,000. The top 750 get paid. Everyone inside the Top 20 will win at least $10,000, with $110,000 to the winner.

BONUS IDEA: I get my dad an entry to this contest every year. He was a casual golf fan, but since I got him this entry three years ago, he calls me every week for the rundown on who he should take that week. Plus, it’s win-win, since getting a gift for dads is basically impossible. Highly recommend.

JOIN THE MAYO CUP ONE & DONE CONTEST FOR 2026

2026 Sony Open Past Winners

PAST WINNERS NOTES

Previous Winners (closing odds)

2025: Nick Taylor at -16 (+10000)

  • Beat Nico Echavarria in a playoff.
  • 68 or better in all 4 rounds.
  • Wins with his 3rd-best career SG: APP week (+5.9).
  • 3 of his Top 8 career SG: APP weeks have come at Sony.
  • 4 of the Top 9 finishes lost strokes off the tee (none of the top-11 SG: Tee finished Top 15).
  • Became the fifth player in the last six years to come from behind to win in the final round.
  • Sixth playoff over the past 10 years.

2024: Grayson Murray at -17 (+40000)

  • Beat Keegan Bradley and Byeong-hun An in a playoff
  • In the 60’s for all 4 rounds (went 63-64 on Friday-Saturday)
  • Top-12 finishers all gained 2.5+ strokes as a putter

2023: Si Woo Kim at -18 (+4000)

  • Beat Hayden Buckley by 1 stroke
  • 67 or better in all 4 rounds (weekend: 64-64)
  • Outlier … his first Top 20 at Sony since 2016, and it hasn’t carried over (42nd in 2024 and MC in 2025)
  • 3 of the top 6 lost ground off the tee, 10 of 11 gained ARG

2022: Hideki Matsuyama at -23 (+1800, fourth favorite)

  • Beat Russell Henley in a playoff (Henley was 6 shots better through Friday)
  • 66 or better in all 4 rounds (weekend: 63-63)
  • Each of the four who finished T- or better gained 4+ strokes putting (Matsuyama was +7.26, 1.3 strokes ahead of anyone else). An outlier Hideki: -3.8 strokes putting at Sony in 2021 and -5 in 2023

2021: Kevin Na at -21 (+6000)

  • Beat Chris Kirk and Joaquin Niemann by 1 stroke.
  • 67 or better in all 4 rounds (61 on Saturday.
  • 12 of the top 13 finishers gained putting from 5-10 feet (the top all lost ground putting from 20-25).
  • Limited reps for Na … didn’t play Sony in 2019 or 2020.

2020: Cam Smith (+4000)

  • Five back after Thursday, but he was five shots better on Friday (his 65 was the best on the course) … six of the top-11 finishers had their worst round of the week on Thursday (windy AF conditions prior to the cut, moderate wind over the weekend).
  • Smith was the only top-11 finisher to lose ground on approach (-0.8) thanks to being the best putter in the field (+8.2).
  • Three of the top-5 in Prox: 175-200 finished with at least a share of fourth place on the final leaderboard.

NOTE: Matt Kuchar (2019) was the last one to win this event by multiple strokes

2026 Sony Open First Round Leader Notes

2025

2024

2023

2022

2026 Sony Open Event Notes

Cam Smith’s -11 winning score was the highest since Vijay Singh won in 2005, also at -11. A coastal course, Waialae experienced massive wind gusts and rain during the first few rounds in 2020. Those winds were a massive outlier, however. Extreme wind that tends to be commonplace at Kapalua rarely emerges at Waialae to that extent. Generally, conditions are benign, and the winning score will linger around -20.

Waialae CC is the fourth-longest-serving host venue on TOUR. The Honolulu course has been played every year since 1965, except for 1970 when there was no event. That trails only Augusta National (1934), Colonial CC (1946), and Pebble Beach (1947).

Ernie Els (2003) and Justin Thomas (2017) are the only two players to complete the Hawaii Slam in the same year, and now, it appears like they’ll be the only two ever. Remember that for trivia purposes.

Very early forecast shows pretty gusty conditions. Check back closer to the first tee as the weather can flip on a dime.

Tracking the historic Strokes Gained data, Around the Green means less and less the more you rise on the leaderboard. While that’s true at many courses that dish out so many birdies, it’s far more pronounced at Waialae CC. Since Waialae is one of the most generous courses for GIR (71% five year average), the more the field utilizes their short game, the fewer birdies they make. Not great in a birdie fest unless all those chips are going in. Additionally, ATG plays from the rough is the one part of Waialae that’s more difficult than an average PGA course.

Full Course Comparative Stats Available in the Betsperts Golf Rabbit Hole

Waialae typically ends up being among the courses with the most difficult fairways to hit at just a shade over 57% compared to the TOUR average of 61%. Don’t worry, however, as the USGA isn’t involved in rough control this week with the typical rough length sitting historically sitting between 2”-2.5”. Players are more concerned with setting up proper angles than landing in the fairway. Even though rough proximity is way higher than playing from the short grass, GIRs from the rough (56%) remain higher than an average event (51%).

Waialae sports a higher scrambling percentage and an almost identical average proximity from the pin on GIRs. So, the Good Drives Gained stat will outweigh Strokes Gained: Off The Tee this week:

Good Drives Gained (Good Drives are drives where the player either hits the fairway off the tee, or the player misses the fairway but still hits the green or fringe in regulation.)

In previous years, the obvious crossover course was El Camaleon, the former host of the Mayaboka Classic. In 2018 and 2019, Patton Kizzire and Matt Kuchar won both events in succession. It was helpful that the fields had similar strength to boot. There was a lot of crossover between them, outside of the very high end. If you’re wondering what happened in 2022 at El Camaleon, wonder no longer. You’ll notice that Sony Open 2022 Runner Up Russell Henley took home the title. The problem is, the PGA moved on from Mayaboka when it became a LIV course in 2023.

There’s also an angle of the short courses on TOUR to play this week. The Sony Open has shown a direct correlation with Colonial, Sedgefield, and Harbour Town, both in course layout and field strength. Port Royal (Bermuda) and Pebble Beach are others worth adding to the list, too. PGA National, too, if you want some more numbers to tack on. Just remember it’s more difficult to contextualize stats from PGA National since the ubiquitous water across the course can skew stats drastically. Something that isn’t present to such an extent as the rest of the crossover courses.

Additionally, since the inception (BWONGGGGGG) of the signature events on the PGA TOUR, Harbour Town and Pebble Beach have only hosted the very top-end players, which does us little to no good since the vast majority of the field at the Sony Open won’t be playing in Signature Events.

Here are the SG: TOTAL/Round leaders from those six courses (Colonial, Sedgefield, Harbour Town, Port Royal, Pebble Beach, PGA National), along with Waialae, in the field this week from the last three seasons:

2026 Sony Open Single Round Showdown Strategy

Taylor ripped off a Sunday streak, and that wasn’t a mistake. Going front to back is a clear advantage here, even with #18 playing more than half a stroke under par. The first two holes on the property are among the four toughest, a disadvantage you don’t run into when playing this course in order.

It’s very possible that Hole 9 (506-yard Par 5) is scored under par by two-thirds of golfers, while Hole 10 (351-yard Par 4) is scored by one-third. With that in mind, the only obstacle is #8 (454-yard Par 4, 16% birdie rate) or #11 (194-yard Par 3, the sixth toughest hole, but you’re still just one shot away from being in a good spot).

Both 9’s are vulnerable to a late streak, but if you’re looking to gain the Showdown edge, make sure you’re loading up on front-to-backs.

2026 Sony Open Fantasy Golf Picks

Aaron Rai — If you’re trying to find the perfect combo of accuracy, irons, putting, and course comp success, you’re going to be spending up for Russell Henley. If you’re good with taking three of the four and praying for a respectable putting week at four times the odds, Rai’s your guy. Winner at the Wyndham in 2024 and recently a champion at the first stage of the DP World Tour playoff sin Abu Dhabi, Rai’s up to 23rd in the world rankings, and sits fourth in this field in driving accuracy, seventh in approach, and 19th in comp course performance.

Daniel Berger — If someone sees Berger on the range this week and he still has the chipping YIPS, let me know so I can concede the bet before it starts. Berger started the 2025 HOT with multiple Top 3 finishes and Top 25s in nine of his first 12 starts, including The Masters, PLAYERS, and signature events. Over Bergers final 10 starts, he failed to finish inside the Top 30 in any event; possible explained away by a finger injury. But it’s clear what the problem was: Chipping.

Berger remained one of the most accurate players off the tee, and his irons were solid, but he started losing almost a stroke PER ROUND around the greens. This from a player who hadn’t finished a season in the negatives since 2018. Clearly something mental. Berger has won at comp courses Pebble and Colonial already in his career, so this is a very reasonable price on a high-end player who may have gotten his act together over the break. And if he hasn’t, it’s not like you wasted money at the top of the board.

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