2022 Honda Classic Betting Card Preview
Ryan Noonan
4 years ago
The PGA Tour kicks off the first of four straight Florida events in Palm Beach Gardens at PGA National for the Honda Classic. Jack Nicklaus played a big role in the original design and the recent updates to this course, and the consensus is it’s one of the toughest non-major Par-70 tracks on Tour each season. If you’re watching the broadcast coverage this week, you’ll likely hear about the famous ‘Bear Trap’ a lot. The Bear Trap, holes 15-17, is generally considered one of the most challenging three-hole stretches on Tour. Birdies will be hard to come by this week, and bogey avoidance will be more key than any other week over the past two months.
Similar to most Florida stops, water hazards, bunkers and windy conditions can wreak havoc on this event, bringing in an added layer of variance to a high-variant sport. Early weather reports are encouraging as far as the wind goes but check back as Thursday approaches. Looking at my card here from years past, I’m typically lighter here pre-tournament, saving bullets for matchups and chasing outright winners on the weekend.
The Florida swing is also ushering in the 2022 Tour debut of several European Tour players who call Florida home during the year. Tommy Fleetwood, Shane Lowry, Nicolai Hojgaard, Ian Poulter, Lee Westwood and Martin Kaymer haven’t been seen stateside since the fall, but are all in the field this week. A majority of the top-tier golfers are taking the week off, with API and The PLAYERS on deck.
Past Honda Classic Winners
- 2021: Matt Jones (-12)
- 2020: Sungjae Im (-6)
- 2019: Keith Mitchell (-9)
- 2018: Justin Thomas (-8)
- 2017: Rickie Fowler (-12)
- 2016: Adam Scott (-9)
- 2015: Padraig Harrington (-6)
For more course-specific data and event trends, please check out Ron Klos’s tournament preview. It’s the most comprehensive preview you’ll find anywhere.
There are so many ways to bet on this beautiful game, and I want to touch on all of them. Picking outright winners is fun, but must be done responsibly. Unit sizing is key, and I’ve shared my approach with our subscribers in the Discord chat. In this space, I want to touch on the players I’m targeting this week and share my opinion on the best way to bet them at this event.
Please take advantage of the Discord feature and community. It’s the best way to get up-to-the-minute lines and advice, and if you need help getting started, please reach out. That’s where my full card will be posted, along with any live in-tournament bets.
Betting markets are fluid, but I’ll note the best number available at the time of this writing.
*Betting lines accurate at the time of publication.
Outright Betting Pick
Keith Mitchell
As we move from west coast to east coast golf, a few players should be on your radar. Keith Mitchell is one of them. The majority of his best finishes, including a win here back in 2019, have come in the southeast on Bermuda greens. The encouraging notes on Mitchell stem from his recent success on the west coast and have him trending up as we get into this four-week Florida swing.
He’s finished inside the top 20 in five of his 10 starts in 2022 after routinely missing the cut in nearly all of his western starts the previous three seasons. He’s gaining strokes in each of the four strokes gained categories so far this season. He also ranks inside the top 10 in this week’s field in strokes gained tee-to-green (SG: T2G) over the past 24 rounds, past three months and past six months. The 35/1 odds on PointsBet are a bit shorter than I wanted them to be, but I like Killer Keith’s chances this week.
Finishing Position Bets
Top 5
Jhonattan Vegas
I’m going down the board a bit here with Jhonattan Vegas, who I also bet to win this week at +5000. The big bomber has been striking it well of late and has been a field-average putter over his career at PGA National, not something he can say for very many places on Tour. Over his past 24 rounds, Vegas ranks 10th in SG: T2G. He’s always strong off the tee and his irons were dialed in last week at Riviera—gaining 1.18 strokes per round on approach. He’s made the cut here in five straight seasons, four of which have seen him finish inside the top 30, with his best finish coming in 2017 (fourth). I’ll take the 11/1 on FanDuel here, backing Vegas’s form and embracing the variance this event brings.
Top 10
Billy Horschel
When I think of Florida golf on the PGA Tour, few golfers come to mind faster than Billy Horschel. After getting it done out west with a bit of smoke and mirrors, Horschel heads home to Florida on the back of a T6 in Phoenix, where he gained strokes across the board on the week. Overall, Horschel has gained strokes in 12 of his past 13 rounds played. If he can build off of last week’s positive approach play he’ll contend this week. His career finishes on this course have been spottier than you’d think, but as always, I’m leaning on form and fit more than course history and backing Horschel at +290 on FanDuel for a top-10 finish.
Top 20
Aaron Wise
I can’t quit Aaron Wise. The putter was cold last week at Riviera. He made the cut, though, gaining strokes on approach and off the tee. He’s made the cut here in each of his three career starts, including a T13 last year, where he gained strokes across the board and led by three strokes heading into the weekend. In a weaker field this week compared to when I was backing him at The Farmers and Waste Management Phoenix, I like Wise to get back in contention on the weekend. The +220 price on FanDuel for a top-20 finish is worth it to me. I couldn’t resist a sprinkle at 60/1 to win, but I understand if you want to sit that one out.
Top 30
Alex Noren
After back-to-back strong showings at The Farmers and Waste Management Phoenix, Alex Noren’s putter let him down last week at Riviera. Noren still made the cut, his third straight, and the notoriously streaky Swede has made a habit of showing up and contending on some of the world’s toughest tracks. Noren can play his way into The Masters and the upcoming WGC-Match Play with a good showing in Florida. A solo third-place finish here in 2018 shows he can navigate PGA National when he’s in form. I’m banking on that here at +120 on FanDuel for a top-30 finish.
Top 40
Chris Kirk
Another former SEC grad who’s seen the majority of his career success on Bermudagrass, Chris Kirk enters the week on the back of three straight rounds in the 60s to end his week in Phoenix, good enough for a T14 finish. Similar to Alex Noren, because he’s best on shorter courses and when in form, Kirk’s familiarity with PGA National should help, despite his up and down career snapshot at this event. Over the past three months, Kirk ranks eighth in this field in SG: T2G. At plus-money on FanDuel, I like him to finish inside the top 40.
72-hole Matchup Pick
Shane Lowry (-140) Over Matthew Wolff
Matthew Wolff is coming off a strong showing in Saudi last time out, where he finished T6, but I don’t believe PGA National suits his game very well. A 58th-place finish in his lone appearance here back in 2020 is worse than any of Shane Lowry’s career finishes at this event. Lowry also competed in Saudi, finishing T14, his third straight top-25 finish, despite some up and down performances on the green. Lowry’s consistency—he made 16 straight cuts to end 2021, finishing inside the top 26 in 14 of them—makes him a far better selection than the volatile play of Matthew Wolff. A tie voids this bet on DraftKings, but I’m willing to lay the juice to back Lowry.
To Miss The Cut
Nicolai Hojgaard
PGA National is not a place to back inaccurate bombers making their course debut. The 20-year-old from Denmark has a ton of potential, but I’ve never seen anything like the volatility in early career finishing positions. Over his past 16 starts, he’s won twice, missed the cut seven times, and finished no worse than T21 when making the cut. There’s no middle ground here. He’s played in 26 events over the past two seasons and finished with a positive driving accuracy grade on just two occasions. With water in play everywhere, spraying it off the tee doesn’t equate to success here. At +136 on FanDuel, I’m backing Hojgaard to slam the trunk on Friday afternoon.
For the most up-to-date picks, check out my Twitter and subscribe to our Discord. This sheet, from Dan Rivera, tracks all my betting picks (and those from the rest of the betting staff). Just click on the tab with my name on it for the results.
This article is intended for entertainment purposes and adult users only. Call 1-800-GAMBLER if you have a gambling problem.