2022 Genesis Invitational Betting & DFS Preview

After a wild tournament and playoff finish at TPC Scottsdale, the Tour heads back to California for the Genesis Invitational and the final event of the West Coast Swing. Built in 1926 in the Santa Monica Mountain Canyon, just outside of Los Angeles, there are many ways to describe Riviera Country Club. It typically plays firm and fast, has tree-lined doglegs with tight fairways and is a shot-makers course with numerous risk-reward holes.

We have a “major-syle” field at Riviera this week as 35 of the top-50 ranked players in the world will tee it up at the Genesis Invitational. That includes every single one of the top 10 players in the world, which hardly ever happens for a regular Tour event.

Since it is an “Invitational”, the field will be capped at 120 players with no Monday qualifier. The purse will be one of the highest of any non-Major event this season. The winner will receive a three-year PGA Tour status exemption instead of the typical two-year standard.

While this is one of the tougher courses to score on, and typically has a “big boy” field, the average odds of the winner has been +8100 with multiple longshots winning over the past 12 events. Other than Dustin Johnson winning at +900 back in 2017, recent winners have been more in the mid-to-low tier range, which is where most of my betting outrights will come. Before you read the rest of this article, make sure to also check out Ryan Noonan’s Betting Card.

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Jump To: Final Model | Bets | DFS Strategy + Player Pool

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Past Winners/Odds

Official Scorecard

Genesis Invitational Winning Trends

• 13 of the last 14 winners had at least three previous career wins.
• 15 of the last 16 winners had played in at least four previous Genesis Invitationals.
• 13 of the last 16 winners have finished 12th or higher in a previous Genesis Invitational.
• 16 of the last 20 winners finished 35th or higher in their last start before the Genesis Invitational.
• 13 of the last 15 winners played at Pebble Beach or TPC Scottsdale in their previous start.
• The last 14 winners were 29 or older.

Past Player Quotes

*Quotes courtesy of ASAP Sports Transcriptions

On the Course in General

Adam Scott: It’s an old traditional style golf course with severe greens. I really just like a lot of the holes out here. You know, I stand on the tee very comfortable here, and shots into the green. Something about it reminds me a lot of some golf in Australia, too, in areas. Just feel very comfortable every time I’m here.

Bubba Watson: This golf course stood the test of time. You know, it’s just a beautiful layout and it’s fun to play. You’ve got to hit shots from every different angle, you’ve got to move it right to left and left to right, so it’s just fun. You can spray it a little bit but still manage the golf course. But at the same time, you can hit fairways and manage the golf course. It’s one of those golf courses where it can bite you at any minute, but at the same time you can score and you can imagine a bunch of shots around the trees and around the greens. The imagination is huge around here. This golf course, they don’t change it, they haven’t changed it since I’ve been around, so it’s a blast every year we come here and I get to create shots. You know, out of all the times I’ve been here, I’ve only been successful a few times, so it’s worked out in my favor because I can be creative.

Rory McIlroy: It’s a great golf course. It’s a real thinker’s golf course and it’s a real treat to play something like this because it’s not overly long, you don’t have to really bomb it off the tee, but it’s really strategic. We don’t get to play them that often anymore.

On Approach Play

Tiger Woods: There’s no faking it around this golf course, especially if the greens are up to speed like they are right now. It puts such a premium on putting the golf ball in play and hitting the ball high. You’ve got to hit the ball high into any of these greens and really control your spin and put the ball in the right spots because getting up and down here, as we’ve all seen, Kikuyu grass is not easy to do.

Bubba Watson: It’s not heavy rough. It’s basically getting the right bounce. You land it six inches short, it stays short. You land it just on the green it could bounce over. It’s all about hitting the right trajectories, hitting the right line. And hopefully on certain pins, hitting the greens so you can produce a little bit of spin.

Jordan Spieth: So you start to go to the driving range and I’ll start to try and work on some shots where you kind of float ones in, work on a lot of shots that you can loft up in the air more than maybe you would do last week. So there’s still a lot of adjustments to be made, even if you are familiar with the place because with the weather here compared to what it could be last week, normally it’s less wind here and it’s more positioning. You’ve got to be in the fairways, even with little rough, to be able to hold these greens. You start working on a lot of different shots. I’m not quite patient enough to play this golf course. I really need to approach it a lot like I approach Augusta. It has a lot of similarities in the way you have to attack it, which center of the green is fantastic.

On the Poa Greens

Adam Scott: Somehow I manage to putt generally well here when it’s one of the courses guys struggle most on tour with… but maybe it’s just the undulation and it’s more difficult here. You know, it’s very tough here in the afternoons putting. This morning when you could chip them up, you’re just a little more confident with the smoother greens. I think it’s no secret the least putts are made here on Tour all year. The greens are quite severe. Poa seems like if it’s just not the right consistency of water versus firmness and everything, they get very bumpy and this is where we start struggling.

Key Course Stats Compared to Tour Average

*Green = easier

*Red = more difficult

Course Overview

Situated in the hills just off Sunset Boulevard in Los Angeles, and completely surrounded by the Pacific Palisades community, the club has a long and distinguished history. Originally known as the Los Angeles Open, the course opened in 1926 thanks to legendary architect George Thomas. The course itself has been relatively unaltered since its opening. Other than a few bunker renovations and the restoration of the 7th and 8th holes by Tom Fazio, Riviera is an old-school course that still packs a punch. The Genesis Invitational often attracts a fantastic field and this year’s event is the best in the tournament’s history with an amazing strength rating of 696.

Riviera is a Par-71 course that stretches to 7,322 yards. Nicknamed ‘Hogan’s Alley’, it’s a classical course featuring tight, tree-lined undulating fairways, with fast Poa green complexes that average 7,500 square feet per green.

Averaging 0.3 shots over par, Riviera is the 12th-toughest course on Tour and features very few areas statistically easier than the Tour average. With the second-lowest Driving Accuracy/GIR% combo, it is a true test of all-around golf and usually takes time for most players to master. Course history experience and knowing the intricacies of this course are very important.

The 11 Par-4s hold their own against the length and difficulty of any other course on Tour, with seven of them over 450 yards. Each of the three Par-5s is very scoreable and must be taken advantage of for players to move up the leaderboard. In fact, this importance is highlighted by the fact that the most recent six winners have totaled 49 shots under par on the Par-5s.

While there is no water danger on the course, the 58 bunkers are some of the deepest and most difficult on Tour. Riviera (along with Torrey Pines) is one of the few courses on Tour that feature Kikuyu fairways and rough. While the rough is only two inches thick, Kikuyu lies can be very tricky, especially if the ball gets buried in the spongy strands of grass. The greens are Poa and are intentionally firm and fast, measuring 12.5 on the stimpmeter.

Off the tee, players will stare down narrow fairways lined by eucalyptus trees. With numerous doglegs, combined with firm fairways that get tighter closer to the 300-yard landing zones, it will be a challenge to stay out of the Kikuyu rough. Because the rough is non-penal, and there is no penalty danger off the tee, “bomb and gauge” is a viable strategy. Taking a look at recent winners like Adam Scott, Bubba Watson and Dustin Johnson, shows that distance definitely plays here. Another argument to favor distance over accuracy is that if most golfers are missing the fairway and playing their approach shots out of the rough, you want the players hitting higher lofted clubs like wedges and short irons into these “bouncy” greens to keep the ball closer to the pins. Along with distance, Good Drive % is another important stat to use this week in determining which players commonly hit greens out of the rough.

With the greens so firm, pinpoint precision is required to get easier birdie opportunities. Players must be able to shape their shots both ways in the air to access the correct tier of the green and to keep the ball below the hole to set up a much easier uphill putt. Tiger Woods echoed this fact by remarking that, “You’ve got to hit the ball high into any of these greens and really control your spin and put the ball in the right spots.” A staggering 76% of approach shots come from 150+ yards. That is one of the highest percentages on Tour.

The Genesis Invitational is one of the most critical weeks for short-game play. With greens missed at a 44% rate, golfers will be challenged to scramble from the Kikuyu rough onto the fast undulating Poa greens. Riviera’s deep bunkers cause sand saves to be 13% tougher than average. “Around the Green” play is ranked just behind SG: Approach in importance this week.

Once on the greens, players will need to hold on for dear life. Riviera’s poa annua greens are the toughest on Tour for putts less than five feet. They are ultra-fast and are very tricky to putt with numerous ridges and spines for golfers to maneuver. That being said, the difficulty tends to level the playing field, allowing troubled putters to find some success here.

Top 10 Most Important Stats

*In order of importance.

• SG: APP
• SG: ARG
• Scrambling on Poa
• Bogey Avoidance
• Good Drive %
• Course History
• Par 4: 400-500 yds
• Proximity 150+ yds
• SG: Putting on Poa
• Par 5 Scoring

Unique Tournament Splits

• SG: Strong Fields
• SG: Difficult Scoring Courses
• SG: West Coast

Pacific Palisades Weather Forecast (February 17-20)

Stunning perfect weather once again!

Player Selection

My betting selection this week has been focused on three key metrics: SG: Approach, SG: ARG/Scrambling and past SG on other difficult scoring courses. With positive short-game play around these tough green complexes being so vital this week, I am not selecting anyone who struggles with the exception of those who have pinpoint accuracy on approach. Viktor Hovland would be an example of this. He is one of the best long-iron players in the world and does not miss many greens. I can overlook his short game weakness for that reason.

I also made the decision to follow the betting trends for the week and focus on players in the +5000 to +8000 range. That did allow me to take number one player in the world, Jon Rahm as my top selection at +1000. It may seem counter-intuitive to take him in a field this loaded, but with so many options up top, why would you not take the best player and run with it? Is he due? Yes. Does this course fit him? Yes. He gained 12 strokes ball-striking last event! He gained seven strokes combined on Approach and ARG at Riviera last year. The value is not great, but as they say, “Fortune favors the bold.”

Finally, let me share one key piece of information that has helped me have success on my finish position bets. It’s very basic, but I have been analyzing past player course history and taking into account a player’s typical past finish position. This week, for example, Talor Gooch has played Riviera three times. He finished inside the top 20 each time. This was before he turned his game around and into the “semi-elite” player he has become. So, you could be aggressive and take him for a top-20 bet. I was a little more conservative and took him for a top-30 at +130 value.

The Genesis Invitational Final Model

In each preview article and on Discord, I present my final model, which gives a detailed player ranking of the most important stats and splits for the week. My modeling is built around the PGA’s Strokes Gained data, which is divided into SG: Off the Tee (OTT), SG: Approach (APP), SG: Around the Green (ARG) and SG: Putting (P). Learn more about Strokes Gained and why it can be so useful in analyzing the past and predicting future performance. Many of the individual splits will be posted on my Twitter feed, with the final model exclusively published here for subscribers.

Outright Betting Selections

*Lines accurate at the time of publication.

Jon Rahm +1000

(2u) PointsBet

As previously mentioned. Jon Rahm is more than due. He fits this course perfectly and has two previous top-10 finishes here. I also think he cares too much to go another week watching someone else lift a trophy on Sunday. He gained 12 strokes ball-striking last week. His recent short game weakness is not a concern as that will revert back towards his normal excellent baseline number. He has gained 10.9 strokes on these greens at Riviera in his three events here. He is also an excellent putter on faster greens. With this being a major-type field, I think we will see Rahm at his best this week.

Viktor Hovland +2700

(0.75u) FanDuel

Including his recent DP World Tour victory, Viktor Hovland has become one of the elite players in the game. Coming off a missed cut at the Phoenix Open, he should be much sharper this week at Riviera, where he finished fifth last year. He is one of the best tee-to-green players in the world and is the best ball-striker in the field, ranking third OTT and fifth in APP in the model. While his short game is cause for some concern, if he can hold enough greens and take advantage on the Par-5s, he should be able to contend on a course that fits many of his strengths.

More Outright Selections

• Marc Leishman +6000 (currently +5500), 0.33u DraftKings
• Talor Gooch +6000 (currently +5000), 0.33u BetRivers
• Tony Finau +6600 (currently +5000), 0.13u BetRivers
• Kevin Na +8000, 0.3u BetRivers
• Paul Casey +8000 (currently +7000), 0.25u BetRivers
• Seamus Power +8000 (currently +7000), 0.25u BetMGM
• Thomas Pieters +8000, 0.25u PointsBet
• Patrick Reed +9000, 0.22u DraftKings

Finishing Position Picks

Top 10

• Patrick Cantlay +150, (1u) FanDuel

Top 20

• Dustin Johnson -110, (1.5u) FanDuel
• Rory McIlroy +105, (1.1u) FanDuel
• Hideki Matsuyama +105, (1.1u) FanDuel
• Viktor Hovland +115, (1u) FanDuel
• Xander Schauffele +115, (1u) FanDuel
• Cameron Smith +120, (1u) FanDuel

Top 30

• Talor Gooch +130, (1u) FanDuel
• Bubba Watson +100, (1.2u) FanDuel
• Kevin Na +150, (1u) FanDuel
• Marc Leishman +150, (1u) FanDuel

Top 40

• Patrick Rodgers +270 (0.5u) FanDuel

DraftKings DFS Strategy

With a shortened field of 120 players, around 60% will make it through the cut-line. In my opinion, there is more flexibility to mix in $7,000 players with the stars. My gameplan this week is to pound some of my favorite plays in the $7-8K range, and mix and match them with many of the studs in the upper tier. I absolutely love Talor Gooch, Marc Leishman and Kevin Na at their price points. I am fully fading or partially fading Brooks Koepka, Collin Morikawa and Tony Finau. Morikawa’s short game has been putrid as of late, and he doesn’t have the positive course history here on his side either. The Core plays were also putrid last week with our high upside plays of Sam Burns and Aaron Wise missing the cut. We will take more of a safer route this week and instead use other pieces to add in upside.

Player Selection

Each week this section will contain three main categories. They are my “Core” plays, my “Price Range” plays and my “Biggest Fades”. For those of you new to some of that DFS verbiage, a core play is a golfer I will be including in the majority of my lineups. They will always be among the handful of my overall top plays for the week. A typical core contains anywhere between 2-4 golfers. After you establish your “pool” of players (the group of players you choose from to build your lineups with at different ownership percentages) for the week, you then surround that core by mixing and matching your other players from varying price ranges. A “fade” is a player you are choosing to either be underweight on compared to the field or not play at all. In the player picks below, unless otherwise specified, the numbers next to each of the categories or metrics is their ranking in this field out of 120 total golfers over the past six months. Keep in mind that while there are 120 golfers in the field, numerous players do not have enough data to be included in the model. The “Core 4” most important stats for the event will always be included among the stats chosen. Own % is referring to the estimated amount each player will be owned in the typical DraftKings contest. For this week, ARG is Around the Green, which is of the utmost importance this week.

Core Plays

Cameron Smith

• Price: $9,100
• Own: 15%
• Model: 6
• SG: APP: 25
• SG: ARG: 10
• Scoring: 16
• CH: 25
• Core 4: 13
• Recent Form: 14
• DraftKings Pts Gained: 6

Talor Gooch

• Price: $8,000
• Own: 12%
• Model: 9
• SG: APP: 11
• SG: ARG: 15
• Scoring: 25
• CH: 14
• Recent Form: 12
• Core 4: 4
• DraftKings Pts Gained: 19

Marc Leishman

• Price: $7,900
• Own: 11%
• Model: 10
• SG: APP: 26
• SG: ARG: 29
• Scoring: 18
• CH: 21
• Recent Form: 18
• Core 4: 11
• DraftKings Pts Gained: 14

Upper-Tier Plays

Jon Rahm

• Price: $11,300
• Own: 22%
• Model: 1
• SG: APP: 14
• SG: ARG: 63
• Scoring: 1
• CH: 7
• Core 4: 9
• Recent Form: 3
• DraftKings Pts Gained: 21

Justin Thomas

• Price: $10,700
• Own: 14%
• Model: 3
• SG: APP: 1
• SG: ARG: 12
• Scoring: 9
• CH: 24
• Core 4: 7
• Recent Form: 5
• DraftKings Pts Gained: 2

Patrick Cantlay

• Price: $11,000
• Own: 19%
• Model: 2
• SG: APP: 20
• SG: ARG: 2
• Scoring: 3
• CH: 4
• Core 4: 3
• Recent Form: 1
• DraftKings Pts Gained: 1

Mid-Range Plays

Viktor Hovland

• Price: $9,400
• Own: 14%
• Model: 15
• SG: APP: 5
• SG: ARG: 98
• Scoring: 27
• CH: 28
• Core 4: 32
• Recent Form: 28
• DraftKings Pts Gained: 26

Hideki Matsuyama

• Price: $9,300
• Own: 12%
• Model: 5
• SG: APP: 8
• SG: ARG: 5
• Scoring: 6
• CH: 12
• Core 4: 1
• Recent Form: 4
• DraftKings Pts Gained: 7

Sungjae Im

• Price: $8,600
• Own: 10%
• Model: 12
• SG: APP: 39
• SG: ARG: 9
• Scoring: 19
• CH: 92
• Core 4: 10
• Recent Form: 7
• DraftKings Pts Gained: 13

Value Plays

*In order of preference

• Paul Casey, $7,600
• Tom Hoge, $7,500
• Seamus Power, $7,500
• Cameron Tringale, $7,300
• Patrick Rodgers, $6,500
• Thomas Pieters, $7,400
• Patrick Reed, $7,400
• Si Woo Kim, $7,300
• Mackenzie Hughes, $7,100
• Mito Pereira, $6,600
• Erik van Rooyen, $7,000
• Doug Ghim, $6,500

Biggest Fades

• Collin Morikawa, $10,400
• Brooks Koepka, $9,000
• Tony Finau, $8,400

For the most up-to-date picks, or if you have any questions or comments, check out my Twitter and subscribe to our Discord. This sheet from Dan Rivera tracks all my betting picks (and those from the rest of the betting staff) on the year. Just click on the tab with my name on it for the results.

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