2022 Genesis Invitational Betting Card Preview

The best golfers in the world are in Pacific Palisades this week at Riviera Country Club for the Genesis Invitational. It’s the last stop on what’s been an electric west coast swing. “The Riv” is a classic course that tests a golfer’s all-around game. It often ranks as one of the 10-12 most difficult courses on Tour each season, and features narrow fairways off the tee, with second shot proximity to the hole more difficult here than your average Tour stop. Familiarity with the fast and firm greens is crucial, and around the green skills come into play more this week than most. A successful week will include scoring on the Par-5′ and surviving the Par-4s whenever possible.

Riviera and San Diego’s Torrey Pines, host of the Farmers Insurance Open just a few weeks back, are the only courses on Tour that feature poa annua greens and Kikuyu fairways and rough, making Torrey a strong corollary course when capping this week. The poa/Kikuya combination is native to both southern California and Australia, and past leaderboards at Riviera have been littered with golfers that call either place home.

Past Winners at The Genesis Invitational:

• 2021: Max Homa (-12)
• 2020: Adam Scott (-11)
• 2019: J.B. Holmes (-14)
• 2018: Bubba Watson (-12)
• 2017: Dustin Johnson (-17)
• 2016: Bubba Watson (-15)
• 2015: James Hahn (-6)

Handicapping early-season events when we have less relevant form data than we do in the spring and summer is a bit more of a feel thing than I’d like it to be. I’d prefer to lean on as much data as possible, but we’re all in the same boat so let’s work with what we have. At this point, we’ve seen most of the field stateside for a start or two, so that helps. For more course-specific data and event trends, please check out Ron Klos’s tournament preview. It’s the most comprehensive preview you’ll find anywhere.

There are so many ways to bet on this beautiful game, and I want to touch on all of them. Picking outright winners is fun, but must be done responsibly. Unit sizing is key, and I’ve shared my approach with our subscribers in the Discord chat. In this space, I want to touch on the players I’m targeting this week and share my opinion on the best way to bet them at this event.

Please take advantage of the Discord feature and community. It’s the best way to get up-to-the-minute lines and advice, and if you need help getting started, please reach out. That’s where my full card will be posted, along with any live in-tournament bets. I posted an 11/1 Brooks Koepka T5 in the Discord last week, and you missed it if you’re only reading this article.

Betting markets are fluid, but I’ll note the best number available at the time of this writing.

*Betting lines accurate at the time of publication.

Outright Betting Pick

Collin Morikawa

Out of sight and out of mind has caused the world’s No. 2 ranked player to slide down the betting board this week. We haven’t seen Collin Morikawa in a PGA event since the Tournament of Champions back in the year’s first week. Morikawa finished T5 in Hawaii before playing twice in the Middle East, but he’s returning home to California this week and was an auto-bet for me when he opened at 21/1 on Monday.

He’s the best iron player in the world, and his fade off the tee works well at this setup. He’s finished second in strokes gained tee-to-green in both of his professional starts at Riviera. I’m willing to toss out last year’s 43rd-place finish here because he was working on a new putting grip he had yet to try in an event up to that point. The putting grip eventually worked seven days later when he won at Concession, so we know he doesn’t need to be in tip-top form to win against a world-class field. I’d still consider him a terrific outright play up to 18/1, but both PointsBet and BetRivers still have 20s available.

Finishing Position Bets

Top 5

Dustin Johnson

Dustin Johnson has dominated this event over the past decade. According to Justin Ray, his 69.0 scoring average is the best at Riviera over the past 10 years with a minimum of 12 rounds played. He’s rolled out of bed and finished inside the top 10 in seven of his past eight starts here (16th in 2018) and in 10 of his past 13. Similar to Morikawa, we haven’t seen a ton of him early in the season. His ball-striking was terrific at Torrey Pines, but he finished T25 due to a wayward putter on Sunday. Since that start, he captured a T8 in his start over in Saudi, and the ball-striking was again on point. I think he’s on the final page of the leaderboard come Sunday and is worth a long look to win at 16/1. I’m also going to play him to finish inside the top five at +400 thanks to BetRivers.

Top 10

Bubba Watson

There’s a Venn diagram of serial killers, people who sleep with their socks on and people who fade Bubba Watson at Riviera. The Venn diagram is a perfect circle. The Bubba Watson course history at Riviera isn’t as strong as the aforementioned Dustin Johnson’s, but Watson has won this event three times and has yet to finish worse than 17th when making the cut. Now, of course, there have been a sprinkling of missed cuts that perhaps make my opening sentence a bit of hyperbole, but Watson is headed to one of his favorite tracks on Tour in tremendous form, and I don’t want to regret not playing him because his putter ran ice-cold here for two days last February.

Watson was dialed in tee-to-green last week in Scottsdale, gaining 2.05 strokes per round on approach on his way to a T14 finish, cashing my T20 play on him. His only other 2022 start came the week prior in Saudi where he finished solo second to Harold Varner III. With Watson, we have course fit, course history and current form all in our favor. A fourth title here pays 45/1 on DraftKings, and he’s worth a look at +400 on PointsBet for a top-10 finish.

Top 20

Matthew Fitzpatrick

A strong showing here last year for Matthew Fitzpatrick (T5) pairs well with back-to-back top-10 finishes recently at Pebble Beach and last week’s Waste Management Open. The ball-striking has been excellent in his previous two 2022 starts, and Fitzpatrick has the on and around the green skills needed to compete this week. Since it’s so difficult to find the fairways here, proximity to the hole becomes increasingly difficult. That puts a premium on around the green games and lag putting since the field will be facing a ton of long putts on Par-4s instead of 10-15 foot birdie opportunities. Leaving a 40-foot putt within three feet for a tap in par is a win on six or seven of the holes this week. This is one of Fitzpatrick’s difficult to quantify skills, but it’ll be on display this week. Love him at +165 on FanDuel for another top 20 showing here.

Top 30

Marc Leishman

The early part of the 2021 season was a struggle for Marc Leishman, but he’s yet to miss a cut since July, and has finished inside the top 38 in each of his past eight starts. The big Aussie has fallen a bit short of this top 30 threshold the past two starts here but does have a pair of top-five finishes to his name at Riviera in the past. Like many of his Australian counterparts, he has a tremendous history at Torrey Pines, a course I’m leaning on as a tiebreaker for my card this week, and shot a 64 on Sunday in Saudi, the last time he teed it up. Similar to Matthew Fitzpatrick, Leishman is tremendous on and around the greens, and at +150 on FanDuel, I like him to finish inside the top 30.

Top 40

Thomas Pieters

We don’t see a lot of Thomas Pieters stateside, but the 30-year-old Belgian’s been on quite a heater of late. He’s made 10 of the last 11 cuts, finishing worse than T24 just once, and has two titles in that time frame, the last coming against a loaded field in Abu Dhabi three weeks ago. Pieters hasn’t played this event since 2018, but he did finish second here back in 2017, including a rarely seen 63 in the final round. His current form is just too good to ignore, and I played him at 80/1 to win on Monday morning because the price is just too good. I’ll happily take him at plus-money to finish inside the top 40, with +115 on FanDuel being the best offering across the marketplace.

For the most up-to-date picks, check out my Twitter and subscribe to our Discord. This sheet, from Dan Rivera, tracks all my betting picks (and those from the rest of the betting staff). Just click on the tab with my name on it for the results.

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