2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational DFS Picks

The PGA Tour moves to the second event of the “Florida Swing” with this week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational at the Bay Hill Club and Lodge in Orlando, Florida. “Arnie’s Tournament” is a limited field, invitation-only event set at 120 golfers with the top 65 and ties making it through the 36-hole cut line.

Bay Hill is a classical Florida-style golf course with Bermuda grass, thick rough, firm greens and numerous bunkers and water hazards. Thanks to the wind, four of the last five winners have finished with a score of 12-under or worse. A stern test of golf, it definitely has a “Major” feel to it.

“Tough”, “can’t fake it”, “mentally challenging” and “must commit to shots” are all phrases players themselves have used to describe Bay Hill. Course knowledge, length off the tee, fairway finding drives and a high ball flight into firm greens are all important qualities for having success.

The tournament will feature five of the top 10 players in the OWGR rankings. In total, we’ll see 16 top-30 ranked players in the world. With defending champion, Bryson DeChambeau already withdrawing, the main notable players include Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy, Viktor Hovland, Hideki Matsuyama, Scottie Scheffler, Tyrrell Hatton and Will Zalatoris.

DraftKings DFS Strategy 

My strategy this week is to attack the $9,000 range. With Sungjae Im, Will Zalatoris, Marc Leishman and Matthew Fitzpatrick each ranked in my top seven, along with Billy Horschel and others just below them in the $8,000 range, there is no shortage of options in which to build quality lineups without dipping into the $10,000 and above players. Now, I will play a lot of Rory McIlroy and Hideki Matsuyama but I’ll mostly fade the likes of Jon Rahm, Viktor Hovland and Scottie Scheffler. Whether it’s questionable course history or just the high price, those are the stands I am taking this week for my fades. There is very little consistent value in the $6,000 range, so I will not be taking many chances down there.

Also, make sure to pay attention to the weather. The wind forecast can change very quickly, making either the AM or PM wave very advantageous to play if an edge can be found. Right now it appears to be relatively calm the first two rounds with winds increasing over the weekend.

Player Selection

Each week this section will contain three main categories. They are my “Core” plays, my “Price Range” plays and my “Biggest Fades”. For those of you new to some of that DFS verbiage, a core play is a golfer I will be including in larger portions of my lineups. They will always be among the handful of my overall top plays for the week. A typical core contains anywhere between 2-4 golfers.

After you establish your “pool” of players (the group of players you choose from to build your lineups with at different ownership percentages) for the week, you then surround that core by mixing and matching your other players from varying price ranges. A “fade” is a player you are choosing to either be underweight on compared to the field or not play at all. In the player picks below, unless otherwise specified, the numbers next to each of the categories or metrics is their ranking in this field out of 120 total golfers over the past six months.

Keep in mind that while there are 120 golfers in the field, numerous players do not have enough data to be included in the model. The “Core 4” most important stats for the event will always be included among the stats chosen. Own % is referring to the estimated amount each player will be owned in the typical DraftKings contest. For this week, with Par-5 Scoring being so important, that rank is included.

Core Plays

Sungjae Im

• Price: $9,900
• Own: 15%
• Model: 1
• SG: APP: 27
• Par 5: 8
• Scoring: 19
• CH: 4
• Core 4: 2
• Recent Form: 13
• DraftKings Pts Gained: 27

Marc Leishman

• Price: $9,200
• Own: 12%
• Model: 6
• SG: APP: 35
• Par 5: 32
• Scoring: 14
• CH: 2
• Recent Form: 16
• Core 4: 18
• DraftKings Pts Gained: 22

Paul Casey

• Price: $8,300
• Own: 19%
• Model: 15
• SG: APP: 1
• Par 5: 21
• Scoring: 49
• CH: 19
• Recent Form: 37
• Core 4: 11
• DraftKings Pts Gained: 67

Upper-Tier Plays

Rory McIlroy

• Price: $11,100
• Own: 23%
• Model: 3
• SG: APP: 12
• Par 5: 5
• Scoring: 3
• CH: 1
• Core 4: 4
• Recent Form: 8
• DraftKings Pts Gained: 3

Will Zalatoris

• Price: $9,400
• Own: 20%
• Model: 4
• SG: APP: 5
• Par 5: 41
• Scoring: 38
• CH: 23
• Core 4: 10
• Recent Form: 18
• DraftKings Pts Gained: 31

Matthew Fitzpatrick

• Price: $9,200
• Own: 17%
• Model: 7
• SG: APP: 81
• Par 5: 2
• Scoring: 11
• CH: 6
• Core 4: 13
• Recent Form: 31
• DraftKings Pts Gained: 43

Mid-Range Plays

Billy Horschel

• Price: $8,900
• Own: 11%
• Model: 8
• SG: APP: 80
• Par 5: 50
• Scoring: 32
• CH: 38
• Core 4: 20
• Recent Form: 14
• DraftKings Pts Gained: 20

Sam Burns

• Price: $8,800
• Own: 8%
• Model: 10
• SG: APP: 8
• Par 5: 33
• Scoring: 43
• CH: 58
• Core 4: 12
• Recent Form: 25
• DraftKings Pts Gained: 37

Talor Gooch

• Price: $8,600
• Own: 9%
• Model: 11
• SG: APP: 11
• Par 5: 12
• Scoring: 42
• CH: 25
• Core 4: 21
• Recent Form: 21
• DraftKings Pts Gained: 17

Value Plays

*In order of preference

• Cameron Young, $7,500
• Tom Hoge, $7,300
• Justin Rose, $7,700
• Christiaan Bezuidenhout, $7,700
• Luke List, $7,500
• Denny McCarthy, $7,100
• Chris Kirk, $7,500
• Thomas Pieters, $7,000
• Sebastian Munoz, $7,000
• Taylor Pendrith, $6,500
• Carlos Ortiz, $6,900
• Matt Wallace, $6,400

Biggest Fades

• Viktor Hovland, $10,800
• Scottie Scheffler, $10,600
• Tyrrell Hatton, $9,00

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Featured Image Credit: Getty Images