2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Card Preview

The Florida swing continues at Bay Hill for the 2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational. Bay Hill offers a stern test of golf, and historically, the winner comes from near the top of the betting board. Despite being a healthy 7,454 yards, distance advantages off the tee are mitigated because of the multitude of forced layups and doglegs throughout. Forced layups off the tee create a ton of long approach shots, and this week’s field will face a higher rate of 200+ yard approach shots than any other week this season. Bay Hill’s lightning-fast, rock-solid Bermuda greens complexes feature run-offs that make the green difficult to hold, creating a lower than average greens in regulation rate every year.

Bay Hill typically features some of the longest rough on Tour each season, and the fairways can also play fast. Don’t be surprised to see excellent tee shots roll into the rough, or even worse, the water. The 2015 redesign brings water into play on 11 of the 18 holes. And then there’s the wind. It’s always a story at Bay Hill, and the early weather report shows moderate wind throughout, but nothing substantial. With The PLAYERS Championship on deck next week, we have a strong field tuning up this week at Bay Hill.

Past Winners at Bay Hill

• 2021: Bryson Dechambeau (-11)
• 2020: Tyrrell Hatton (-4)
• 2019: Francesco Molinari (-12)
• 2018: Rory McIlroy (-18)
• 2017: Marc Leishman (-11)
• 2016: Jason Day (-17)

For more course-specific data and event trends, please check out Ron Klos’s tournament preview. It’s the most comprehensive preview you’ll find anywhere.

Light card for me this week because I’ll be out of pocket and golfing myself (Hello, Hilton Head!), and betting has not made its way down to South Carolina yet.

*Betting lines accurate at the time of publication.

Outright Betting Pick

Viktor Hovland

I think Viktor Hovland learned a lot from his weekend meltdown here last season. He was -6 heading into the weekend, I remember vividly because I bet him outright, and he disappeared on Saturday when the winds picked up. His game is perfectly suited for this course. The 200-225 range on approach shots matters significantly here, nearly double that of a standard Tour event, and no one in the world is better in that range than young Norweigan. The 2022 sample is small, and Hovland ranks inside the top 10, but in 2021 he lead the Tour in proximity to the hole in this range. The overwhelming majority of his career wins and top 10 finishes have come on TifEagle Bermudagrass greens, which is what he’ll see this week at Bay Hill. Looking for his first career PGA Tour win on U.S. soil, I’m on Vik to win at +1800 on DraftKings.

Finishing Position Bets

Top 5

Rory McIlroy

My first bet of the week was on Rory McIlroy to win, and I still like it anywhere at +1200 or greater. I’m surprised that number is still available given Rory’s blend of form and favorable history at Bay Hill over his career. He’s finished inside the top 18 in eight straight starts and seems to have fixed the putting issues that plagued him last summer. He leads the field in total strokes gained over the past six months, and according to DataGolf, only Tiger Woods has a higher adjusted strokes gained mark at Bay Hill than Rory McIlroy. His distance advantage helps in the key 200-225 approach range, and if he keeps rolling it as he did in Dubai and Los Angeles, he’s going to contend this week. A top-five finish pays out 3/1 at BetRivers.

Top 10

Will Zalatoris

Will Zalatoris is like Aaron Wise to me, only he’s really good at golf. I have trouble staying away, especially when there’s a premium put on approach play and the playing conditions are difficult. So far, Zalatoris has thrived in said spots, nearly taking down an elite field at a long and tough track at Torrey Pines back in late January. His putter can due him in, and he’s shown well on both west coast poa and Bermudagrass at times, but his performance at Augusta and the lightning-fast greens at the 2021 Masters have me encouraged heading into this week. He’s an auto-outright bet for me north of 30, which I did earlier in the week, and I like FanDuel’s +310 for a top 10 finish.

Top 20

Matthew Fitzpatrick

We’ve only seen Matthew Fitzpatrick twice this season, at Pebble Beach and at the Waste Management, but he found himself inside the top 10 in both starts. His irons have been dialed in of late, and he ranks 6th this season in the key 200-225 range that I’m focusing on this week. Fitzpatrick doesn’t find his way on my betting card very often because I struggle with golfers who rely on their putter as much as he does, but his recent second-shot performances are too good to ignore. Oh, and he LOVES this place. He finished second here to Francesco Molinari back in 2019 and followed that up with consecutive top 10 finishes in 2020 and 2021. A fourth trip inside the top 10 pays nearly 3/1 on FanDuel and is very much in play, but I’ll take the conservative route and back him for a top 20 at +145.

Top 30

Marc Leishman

Marc Leishman returns to one of his favorite spots on Tour, in significantly better form than when he showed up in 2021. Prior to Leishman’s missed cut here last season, he had three top-five finishes in his previous five starts at Bay Hill, placing no worse than 23rd. He ranks second in proximity in the 200-225 range and has shown an uptick in his overall distance so far in 2022, which will serve him well this week. He’s made nine starts so far this season, finishing inside the top 30 in seven of them, but wasn’t far behind with his T36 at the Sony and T38 at the CJ Cup. I like the big Aussie’s chances to be in the mix this weekend, and I’m back him at -115 on FanDuel.

Top 40

Keith Mitchell

I’m going to continue to ride the hot hand of Keith Mitchell, last week’s outright pick at Honda. He didn’t seal the deal but he finished inside the top 10 once again. He’s finished inside the top 12 in four of his five 2022 starts, and his love for Florida golf has shown up here in previous starts. He nearly hit the top 40 here last year, just missing at 43rd overall, but his resume here includes a T6 in 2019 and T5 in 2020.

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